US Fascism Risk Thermometer: Historical Analysis

⚠️ Current Status: Extreme Risk Territory

The United States is currently registering its highest sustained risk level in the modern measurement period (1958-2025), surpassing even the 2008 financial crisis. This is driven not by economic factors, but by historic lows in national pride and institutional trust combined with demographic change anxiety.

Current Risk Index (2025)

75.3

Extreme Risk

1980 Crisis

70.7

2009 Recession

72.0

2020 Pandemic

84.3

Current (2025)

75.3

Composite Fascism Risk Index Over Time (1958-2025)

Risk Level Interpretation

0-30: Low Risk - Stable conditions, democratic norms intact

30-50: Moderate Risk - Some warning signs present

50-70: High Risk - Multiple ingredients combining

70-100: Extreme Risk - All four ingredients at dangerous levels

Methodology: The Four Ingredients

This index combines four factors identified by academic research as precursors to extremist movements:

Economic Crisis (33% weight): Unemployment rate - Higher unemployment increases risk-seeking behavior and scapegoating
Status Threat (30% weight): National pride decline - Perceived loss of national standing creates receptivity to restoration narratives
Cultural Backlash (17% weight): Demographic change - Rapid shifts from historical norms trigger anxiety
Institutional Trust (20% weight): Trust in government - Collapse of faith in mainstream institutions creates demand for outsiders

Weights based on meta-analysis of 36 academic studies (Scheiring et al., 2024) showing economic factors explain ~33% of populist surges, with cultural and institutional factors comprising the remaining ~67%.

The Four Ingredients: Individual Trends

1. Economic Crisis: Unemployment Rate

Current: 4.2% - Relatively low. Economic factor is not currently driving risk.

2. Status Threat: National Pride

Current: 38% "extremely proud" - Down 32 points from 2003 peak. Historic low, major risk driver.

3. Cultural Backlash: Foreign-Born %

Current: 14.5% - At historic peak levels (higher than 1920), rapid change creates anxiety.

4. Institutional Trust: Trust in Gov't

Current: 22% - Down 55 points from 1964 peak. Near historic lows, major risk driver.

📊 Key Insight: Current Risk is Not Economic

Unlike the Great Depression or 2008 financial crisis, current extreme risk levels are NOT driven by unemployment (which remains low at 4.2%). Instead, risk is driven by:

National pride collapse: Fallen to historic lows (38% vs. 70% in 2003)
Institutional trust collapse: Only 22% trust government (vs. 77% in 1964)
Demographic anxiety: Foreign-born population at all-time highs (14.5%)

This pattern aligns with research showing status threat and cultural backlash can be stronger drivers than economics (Mutz, 2018; Margalit, 2019).

Data Sources & Methodology

Unemployment: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) for historical data

National Pride: Gallup polling (2001-2025), pre-2001 estimates based on historical context

Foreign-Born Population: U.S. Census Bureau historical statistics, Migration Policy Institute

Trust in Government: Pew Research Center (1958-2024), American National Election Studies

Key Academic Sources

• Scheiring, G., Molnár, G., Geiger, B. B., & Szabó, L. (2024). The Populist Backlash Against Globalization: A Meta-Analysis of the Causal Evidence. British Journal of Political Science.

• Funke, M., Schularick, M., & Trebesch, C. (2016). Going to Extremes: Politics after Financial Crises, 1870-2014. European Economic Review.

• Mutz, D. C. (2018). Status threat, not economic hardship, explains the 2016 presidential vote. PNAS, 115(19).

• Margalit, Y. (2019). Economic Insecurity and the Causes of Populism, Reconsidered. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(4).

• Gozgor, G. (2022). The Role of Economic Uncertainty in the Rise of EU Populism. Public Choice, 190(1).

Last updated: October 2025 | Part of the Horse Energy analysis series on economic distribution and democratic stability

🌡️ US Fascism Risk Thermometer